Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 6.921500e-05 0.000083 0.000097 0.000114 0.000133 0.000153 0.000177
2025-03-02 5.017291e-05 0.000067 0.000087 0.000111 0.000139 0.000171 0.000210
2025-03-09 3.891484e-05 0.000057 0.000079 0.000107 0.000141 0.000181 0.000231
2025-03-16 3.172833e-05 0.000050 0.000074 0.000106 0.000147 0.000196 0.000257
2025-03-23 2.671627e-05 0.000046 0.000071 0.000107 0.000153 0.000209 0.000282
2025-03-30 2.215593e-05 0.000041 0.000068 0.000106 0.000157 0.000221 0.000304
2025-04-06 1.786389e-05 0.000036 0.000063 0.000103 0.000157 0.000227 0.000320
2025-04-13 1.513874e-05 0.000033 0.000061 0.000103 0.000162 0.000238 0.000342
2025-04-20 1.171312e-05 0.000028 0.000055 0.000098 0.000159 0.000240 0.000352
2025-04-27 9.835345e-06 0.000026 0.000053 0.000097 0.000162 0.000250 0.000372
2025-05-04 8.300254e-06 0.000024 0.000051 0.000097 0.000166 0.000260 0.000392
2025-05-11 7.438526e-06 0.000023 0.000051 0.000100 0.000173 0.000275 0.000419
2025-05-18 6.132897e-06 0.000021 0.000050 0.000101 0.000179 0.000289 0.000447
2025-05-25 4.417665e-06 0.000018 0.000045 0.000096 0.000178 0.000293 0.000461
2025-06-01 3.208824e-06 0.000015 0.000042 0.000093 0.000177 0.000298 0.000477
2025-06-08 2.455337e-06 0.000014 0.000040 0.000092 0.000180 0.000309 0.000500
2025-06-15 1.939820e-06 0.000012 0.000039 0.000093 0.000185 0.000322 0.000527
2025-06-22 1.432653e-06 0.000011 0.000037 0.000092 0.000187 0.000331 0.000548
2025-06-29 9.622332e-07 0.000009 0.000035 0.000089 0.000187 0.000336 0.000563
2025-07-06 7.043823e-07 0.000009 0.000033 0.000089 0.000190 0.000347 0.000588
2025-07-13 3.919239e-07 0.000007 0.000030 0.000085 0.000186 0.000346 0.000595
2025-07-20 2.590617e-07 0.000006 0.000029 0.000084 0.000189 0.000356 0.000618
2025-07-27 1.667843e-07 0.000006 0.000028 0.000084 0.000193 0.000366 0.000641